Sunday, September 20, 2020

Coronavirus Diary: Sep 20, 2020

I haven't written one of these in a long while.

One thing I can say is that I survived the month of August and first half of September. Was that not one of the hottest periods in years? Of course, it didn't help that I was working from home and couldn't work in an air conditioned building. Per Weather.com, Glendale hit 112 on September 6th. On another site, I read 115, but perhaps 112 is the official number. I slept with wet frozen towels over my head. These sort of periods just gives me one thought, "My next apartment or house is going to have central air."

I'm still using my free time to catch up on old classic movies. TCM is now probably the most watched channel for me. Some of the highlights would be The Good, the Bad and the Ugly with Clint Eastwood. Bullitt and The Sand Pebbles with Steve McQueen. A number of Charlie Chaplin movies such as The Kid, City Lights and The Great Dictator. Peyton Place with Lana Turner. 

Peyton Place is perhaps the movie I loved the best. It felt like the city was in a parallel universe to what was going on in the world at the time, World War II. Sure, there was interactions between the two worlds. There was a military draft. High school seniors were sent off to war. But it was also a world where everyone was beautiful and handsome. And sure, this movie took place in the early 1940s, but it felt like everyone was living in the 1950s.

With the heat, my exercise routines have been greatly diminished, but I do try to go out when I can. One of my favorite walks recently is a rather long walk that takes me into Atwater Village and I walk alongside the Los Angeles river. On one walk down by the river, I saw a musician packing up his monitors, microphone, etc etc. He had done some sort of live set. If only I had known about it in advance, because I would have come with my camera.

Okay, Los Angeles music scene speculation time. Let's say that live music doesn't start up until sometime in Q3 2021. I predict that Live Nation will have to sell off The Echo and Echoplex. Maybe not the Regent. Who will buy it? Mitchell Frank of Spaceland Presents. Yep, what was merged in 2019 will be undone in 2021 (or perhaps in early 2022).

Other assumptions that I'm making: It doesn't matter if Save Our Stages goes through Congress or not as Live Nation won't benefit from that legislation. Mitchell Frank will have had to keep his money that he got from the merger. Now it is known that Live Nation spent $20 million to $25 million on the transaction, but I doubt Michell Frank got that much. I'm sure a lot of that money went to take over loan amounts associated with the venues, but surely he walked off with a few million. Now perhaps he spent most of his money, banks would likely still take a chance on him. Or he could easily raise the funds via investors.

I don't say this will happen with 100% assurance, but I give it 50%. Music venues have to stay shut until Q3 2021 before this speculation kicks in.



 

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